Diarrhea remains a primary public health concern contributing to significant morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age, particularly in developing countries, including Indonesia. This study aimed to create a predictive model of environmental factors affecting the incidence of diarrhea among children aged 0–23 months. A cross-sectional design was employed, utilizing secondary data from the 2018 Indonesian Basic Health Research Survey (RISKEDAS—Riset Kesehatan Dasar). Data were collected through structured interviews utilizing household and individual questionnaires, encompassing responses from 27,280 mothers with children aged 0–23 months. Data were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. The findings indicated that households with 5–7 members, use of unprotected drinking water sources, and feces disposal practices not involving toilets were significantly associated with increased risk of diarrhea among children aged 0–23 months. The predictive model accounted for only 0.02% of the variance in diarrhea incidence, suggesting that 99.98% of the variation is attributable to other unmeasured factors. It is recommended that public health stakeholders prioritize interventions aimed at improving water quality, promoting safe sanitation practices, and addressing household overcrowding to reduce the burden of diarrhea in this vulnerable age group.

Keywords: Diarrhea; Children aged 0–23 months; Environmental Factors.